What "No Newt" Means for Religious Conservatives

         

Deal Hudson

This is an expanded version of my morning post from www.insidecatholic.com:

The two-day "Solutions Days" conference in Atlanta was so bold and so incisive in scope, it had led me to portend the entry of Newt Gingrich into the presidential race .

Instead, the opposite happened -- it became the occasion of Newt's announcement that he will not run.

(So much political prognostication! I remember boldly proclaiming how a certain Governor of Arkansas could never be President of the United States.)
 

This has important implications for religious conservatives who are looking for a horse in the 2008 election.

Those who were following the lead of James Dobson were waiting for the newly-shreved (meaning "forgiven") Newt who had made his public confession some months ago on Dr. Dobson's radio show.

Now where do the Dobsonites go?  Is there anyone out there who qualifies for support? Dobson has, unintentionally I am sure, badly divided the Christian vote. Why?

I have already commented on the fact that Dobson has publicly rejected the other GOP possibles. 

For Dobson, Thompson is not really a Christian, or not enough of one.

Dobson would not vote at all if Giuliani were the nominee.

Dobson says Christians won't vote for a Mormon, Romney.

And, finally, John McCain will never, and he means never, get Dobson's support. 

What is Dobson going to do now? Will he throw his support to Huckabee and hope that he gets a VP slot?

What are religious conservatives going to do now? Newt wasn't their perfect candidate, by far, but he gave them an excuse for delaying their decision.

Right now, they are equally divided among the four front-runners.

This is a big chance for Fred Thompson to make a strong pitch for their support.

McCain just did this by declaring that he would not support a Muslim for president.

Romney, who has run the best campaign so far, will continue to do what he does well: work hard and reach out to all the right people.

But it is Giuliani who figures to gain the most from Newt staying on the sidelines. With religious conservatives lacking energy and leadership, Giuliani can claim the pragmatic and straight-talking high ground.

He can also continue to talk about religion in a way that befits his experience and beliefs. Giuliani's comments on the "woman at the well," though scripted, were the right script for his candidacy, and perhaps for the political moment we find ourselves in.

       

Deal Hudson

This is an expanded version of my morning post from www.insidecatholic.com:

The two-day "Solutions Days" conference in Atlanta was so bold and so incisive in scope, it had led me to portend the entry of Newt Gingrich into the presidential race .

Instead, the opposite happened -- it became the occasion of Newt's announcement that he will not run.

(So much political prognostication! I remember boldly proclaiming how a certain Governor of Arkansas could never be President of the United States.)
 

This has important implications for religious conservatives who are looking for a horse in the 2008 election.

Those who were following the lead of James Dobson were waiting for the newly-shreved (meaning "forgiven") Newt who had made his public confession some months ago on Dr. Dobson's radio show.

Now where do the Dobsonites go?  Is there anyone out there who qualifies for support? Dobson has, unintentionally I am sure, badly divided the Christian vote. Why?

I have already commented on the fact that Dobson has publicly rejected the other GOP possibles. 

For Dobson, Thompson is not really a Christian, or not enough of one.

Dobson would not vote at all if Giuliani were the nominee.

Dobson says Christians won't vote for a Mormon, Romney.

And, finally, John McCain will never, and he means never, get Dobson's support. 

What is Dobson going to do now? Will he throw his support to Huckabee and hope that he gets a VP slot?

What are religious conservatives going to do now? Newt wasn't their perfect candidate, by far, but he gave them an excuse for delaying their decision.

Right now, they are equally divided among the four front-runners.

This is a big chance for Fred Thompson to make a strong pitch for their support.

McCain just did this by declaring that he would not support a Muslim for president.

Romney, who has run the best campaign so far, will continue to do what he does well: work hard and reach out to all the right people.

But it is Giuliani who figures to gain the most from Newt staying on the sidelines. With religious conservatives lacking energy and leadership, Giuliani can claim the pragmatic and straight-talking high ground.

He can also continue to talk about religion in a way that befits his experience and beliefs. Giuliani's comments on the "woman at the well," though scripted, were the right script for his candidacy, and perhaps for the political moment we find ourselves in.

Comments

[Larry Perrault]

Why This Christian Will Never Vote For Giuliani at http://larryperrault.blogspot.com