Marc Nadeau
Originally published on March 16 on www.majoritesilencieuse.net (my new french blog).
1- The Democratic Party is deeply divided. Whoever is chosen to lead the troops in combat during the battlewill have to deal with troops that harbour increasing animosity within their ranks. When in the trenches, the enemy must be brought down, not the neighbour. The exact opposite is now taking place in the Clinton, Gore and Kerry party. Every day that goes by without the Democrats uniting around a standard-bearer improves McCain’s chances.
2- If Barack Obama wins for the Democrats, he will have to contend with a glaring lack of substance, the ideological stagnation of his party’s extreme left (the two Democrats who won the presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson were centrists) and the faux pas of his entourage (the declarations of his spouse and his pastor and ex-advisor regarding their lack of national pride). Obama would hardly be able to drape himself in the stars and stripes. Then, there is the Clinton clan, who would have difficulty stomaching being piped at the post and who may prefer staying away rather than favouring the Illinois Senator. After all, 2012 is not that far away!
3- If Hillary Clinton is crowned, she will have to convince the party’s militant base that she can arouse passion and hope. This would be a tall order considering her chronic lack of charisma. Moreover, the past months have made it possible to measure the cracks in her armour. She is nothing like the Teflon politician who can withstand anything. And if you think that the Democratic race will have been hard for her, buckle your seat belts if she is in contention for November 4.
4- In a race against either candidate, John McCain will definitely be able to rely upon the fact that he is well positioned among the independents and the Democrats — a key electorate for the presidential joust. Furthermore, the disenchanted political supporters of the candidate who will have had to admit defeat may be tempted to give McCain a chance; he may (talking in the conditional) not last more than a mandate. This would fit well with the second scenario.
5- McCain is a positive, moderate conservative who does not raise fear among voters. In his last publication concerning the presence of Catholics in the American public arena and its influence on it, Deal W. Hudson remarks that Catholics do not appreciate the strident and noisy rhetoric used to convey messages. They prefer a more subtle approach. Considering the importance of this group on the political chessboard, one must recognize that McCain is favoured. Particularly given that hard-line conservatives will have the choice between the Arizona Senator and a Democratic victory that will push them aside for 4 years.
6- The Sarkozy Model. For many years, the current French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, was associated to the former President Jacques Chirac as member of his government. In 2007, he managed to convince Hexagon electors that he truly represented "change". One must admit that Sarkozy, as in the case of McCain with Bush, had a hard time while under Chirac. Similarly, everyone remembers the desperate tactics (I am being polite...) used by Bush’s strategists to derail McCain’s locomotive in 2000. There is also the fact that following the example of Sarkozy, the Arizona Senator is not indebted to the one he wishes to replace. The Democrats will thus find it difficult to affix the Bush III stamp on McCain. This will be a great advantage for the Republicans.
7- Regarding domestic policy, the ideas of the Vietnam War hero are much less out of step then those of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama (see article on this site). Admittedly, the Democrats are positioned too far to the left in comparison with the electorate’s position in general. Some may argue that Bill Clinton was able to make the Grand Old Party bite the dust in 1992 precisely on an economic platform. However, he had three advantages: charisma, experience and centrism. Neither of the two aspiring Democrats combines the three ingredients. The mix is just not right.
8- Foreign policy. It is McCain’s strong point. On the strength of his military, parliamentary and political experience, the Arizona Senator holds a favourable position in this area: a) he has remained steadfast in his convictions regarding Iraq, b) the average voter will have more confidence in him than in a novice to take charge of a function that inevitably comes with the concerns of a world characterized by constant upheaval, c) McCain is already playing this card; he has recently travelled to Iraq, Israel, France and Great Britain. While McCain embarks on an international journey that enhances his credibility and positions him at the forefront, the Democrats are quarrelling in a tavern...
9- Still on the topic of foreign policy, le Republican candidate will also be able to take advantage of his adversaries’ hypocrisy. In the interest of pleasing the labour unions they have needed, still need and will always need to oil the Democrat’s engine, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama wear the garb of protectionism. Those who denigrated George W. Bush for deteriorating relations between the United States and several other countries around the world are in the process of using a similar course on an economic level. The United States must avoid at all cost commercial conflicts that would further jeopardize their economy and their relations on a global scale. And the Americans know it; those who wish to finally turn the page on a presidency that will have known its lot of missed or poorly orchestrated international opportunities.
10- The rabbit and the turtle. If there is a fable that resembles McCain’s political career, it is that one. Do you remember what was being said about him last fall? We were writing his political obituary column. Today, his Republican adversaries have been left in the dust and his presidential race is marked by opportunities and successes.
The moral of this story: wait for the evening of the first Tuesday in November before announcing the defeat of the Republican candidate. He has mastered the art of disproving our Quebec platform managers who are almost invariably inclined to believe in a Democrat victory.
